Ranveer Allahbadia - Abhijit Iyer-Mitra

1) Abhijit Iyer-Mitra discusses the recent news that a missile may have hit Putin's office in the Kremlin and the possibility that the Ukrainians were responsible. He explains that there is a lot of disinformation surrounding the incident, but that the Ukrainians have carried out covert bombings before and are capable of doing so again. He notes that Putin has been restrained in his targeting of Ukraine, despite perceptions that he has not been. Abhijit goes on to compare American and Russian war fighting, noting that Americans are very precise and accurate in their military operations, but often make mistakes in the social policies that follow. He suggests that Americans have good sources of knowledge, but are often jaundiced toward points of view that they do not agree with.

2) Abhijit explains that the US has a combination of reasons for going to war, including economic and ideological factors. While there are efforts to give resources back to the Afghan people, there is a strong belief in spreading democracy and freedom, which may not necessarily work for all societies. The speaker mentions that societies develop differently based on stimulus, and that human development should be the focus, rather than the investment in machines. He gives examples of how post-World War II Germany and Japan were able to successfully transition to being peaceful and prosperous states due to previously established development, while Afghanistan and Iraq were not at a similar level of development.

3) Abhijit discusses why countries that have already developed like Germany, Japan, and Italy required very little to become disciplined. The basis of this is education and jobs that give a sense of discipline. He also talks about the issue of civilians getting hurt in Iraq and Afghanistan, which is due to resistance that comes with American rule. The oppressor might think that they are giving freedom and democracy when the oppressed people might not actually want that freedom. He also shares his occupation, which is being a Senior Fellow at a think tank, and his love for working and teaching youngsters.

4) Abhijit talks about his experience in Afghanistan where he interviewed Taliban commanders. He explains how he contextualized things differently as an Indian compared to the British or American point of view, with different questions but also implicit cultural expectations in building trust with hash-smoking. Interestingly, he found no hatred towards India amongst the Taliban commanders, who held a great sense of pride in being Afghan and were unhappy with foreign countries interfering with their affairs.

5) Abhijit discusses his encounters with the Taliban while touring Afghanistan as a tourist. His first encounter with the Taliban in Mazari Sharif was intimidating, but he tried to calm himself down with hash. Later in Kandahar, Iyer-Mitra was evacuated after the local commander heard on radio chatter that "an Indian was in town." He feared a potential kidnapping or being killed. Iyer-Mitra acknowledges that there is no real way to know what would have happened if he had not left Kandahar.

6) Abhijit discusses his impressions of Afghanistan and the stark, unforgiving landscape that characterizes the region. He explains that the country's pre-industrial, agriculture-based economy makes it a challenging place to live, particularly during the cold winter months when food supplies are reduced, and famine and death become common. Iyer-Mitra also notes that the Taliban has two sides: one that spreads violence and terror, and another that focuses on security measures. Although he acknowledges that the situation is still tough, he believes that the security-oriented Taliban has made positive changes, providing some relief to Afghani kids who have only ever experienced war and conflict.

7) Abhijit recounts his experience with the people he was trying to arrange visas for, stating that despite not being able to help most of them leave Kabul, some have expressed that they don't want to leave as the situation isn't as bad as expected. He goes on to explain the complex realities of life for the Afghan people, particularly those in conflict societies, who can be schizophrenic and bipolar due to the constant threat of violence. He notes that in many villages, women are still required to don burqas and are not allowed to talk to men outside.

8) Abhijit talks about his travels to Uzbekistan, where he met a Muslim religious scholar at a historic madrasa who offers him vodka and pork to eat, despite it being an Islamic country. He then discusses the country's history, where in the 1920s, the Soviets heavily industrialized the country and wiped out religions, causing people to show no outward signs of religiosity to fit in. He also shares his observation of Uzbek women wearing burkas when they are close to the Afghan border, and how he has never been able to see devastation or trauma in people's eyes during his travels in war-torn regions.

9) Abhiji discusses his experiences with hygiene culture and food in Afghanistan. He notes that the hygiene culture is bad, similar to that of India, and that the public toilets stink. He also mentions the problematic nature of eating sheep in Afghanistan, as they eat sheep that are over two years old, which can have a rancid smell. The food is mostly dry and meat-centric, with little to no vegetables or gravies, which he found to be a major adjustment.

10) Abhijit Iyer-Mitra notes that there is little diversity in Afghan cuisine and that even rich Afghans eat the same food as poor people, making it a democratized cuisine. He then moves on to how rich Afghans view the Taliban, with many of them initially not wanting to be governed by them but now finding it not as bad as they thought it would be. Furthermore, the guest mentions that the lifestyles of the rich in Afghanistan are not based in Afghanistan, with many of their pictures of living the high life being taken in Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and other places.

11) Abhijit discusses the history of Iran, including its past relationship with Iraq and the effects of long-term sanctions on the country's government and society. He explains the evolution of the ruling factions in Iran and their susceptibility to corruption. He also touches on the recent Saudi-Iranian reproachment and its significance for regional geopolitics, noting that the deal was negotiated by the Chinese and indicating that the Biden administration's perceived shortcomings may have contributed to the shift in alliances. The speaker suggests that the deal represents an American failure and a notable achievement for MBS, Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince.

12) Abhijit discusses the Obama administration's nuclear deal with Iran and how it was received by Middle Eastern nations such as Israel and Saudi Arabia. The deal involved lifting some of the sanctions imposed on Iran in exchange for restrictions on their nuclear program, but also left the door open for them to continue building their economy and developing nuclear weapons in the future. The Israelis and Saudis were strongly against this deal while the Republicans accused Obama of being a Muslim. In contrast, Trump's administration cancelled the deal and proposed creating a common enemy in Iran, which resulted in some diplomatic approachment between the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Israel.

13) Abhijit discusses the current state of Iran, including its economic and social problems and the dissatisfaction of its young population with the political system. There is a chronic drug problem in Iran, and young people are leading almost aimless lives due to lack of job opportunities. The political system is perceived as corrupt and ineffective, and the people are disillusioned with reformist presidents who have turned out to be just as bad as conservative ones. There is a desire for change, and the speaker points out that recent protests in Iran show that the people are no longer afraid to demand something different.

14) Abhijit discusses the possibility of World War III, stating that although the world is highly interconnected and global war seems unlikely, unexpected events can lead to unpredictable outcomes. He cites the example of Putin's invasion of Ukraine, which many intelligence professionals did not anticipate. Regarding the geopolitical situation in Afghanistan and Iran, he predicts that war fatigue will set in within the next two to three years, and that Russia will achieve most of its objectives. He also notes that the Iranian government has significant social control over the population and that the average Iranian is largely indifferent towards India.